By Bennett Scott Linsky
“I’m just going to wait until things calm down.”
We hear this phrase often. It usually comes during times of transition—an election year, a change in interest rates, or when the market hits a scary-sounding “all-time high.”
It feels like a prudent, cautious strategy. It feels safe.
But in the investment world, “safety” can be an expensive illusion. The strategy of “Wait and See” is rarely a strategy of preservation; historically, it has been a strategy of missed opportunity.
If you sat in cash during 2024 waiting for a “clearer sign,” you didn’t just stay flat—you fell behind. Here is why the cost of waiting is often higher than the risk of investing.
1. The “All-Time High” Fallacy One of the biggest psychological hurdles for investors in 2025 is the market’s recent performance. When the S&P 500 hits a new high, our instinct is to think, “It can’t go any higher. It must be due for a crash.”
History disagrees. Data going back to 1958 shows that when the market hits a new high, it is higher a year later 12 out of 13 times, averaging a 15.3% return. Highs tend to beget highs. Waiting for a pullback often means watching the market climb another 10% while you wait for a 5% drop that never comes.
2. The 2024 Lesson: The Rally No One Believed In Think back to the start of 2024. The headlines were dominated by recession fears, inflation stickiness, and geopolitical tension. It felt like the perfect time to wait.
Yet, despite the “uncertainty,” the markets rallied. Global buyouts and dealmaking, which had slumped for two years, reversed course and surged 37% in 2024. Investors who stayed invested captured that growth. Those who “waited for clarity” missed the initial surge—and the math of compounding makes it nearly impossible to catch up.
3. The “Perfect Timing” Myth Let’s look at the math. Schwab conducted a study comparing five hypothetical investors over 20 years:
- Peter Perfect: Invested at the exact lowest point every single year (impossible skill).
- Ashley Action: Invested immediately on Jan 1st every year (zero skill).
- Larry Linger: Sat in cash waiting for a “better entry point” that he never took.
The result? “Ashley Action” (who just invested immediately) ended up with nearly double the wealth of “Larry Linger.” Even more surprisingly, she finished only slightly behind “Peter Perfect.”
The Lesson: Time in the market beats timing the market—almost every single time.
4. Cash is Not “Neutral” We often view cash as a safe harbor where our money stays static. But in 2025, cash is a melting ice cube. While inflation has cooled, it hasn’t disappeared. Data from AJ Bell shows that over a 25-year period, cash savers barely beat inflation, while investors in global funds tripled their money in real terms.
If you are holding excess cash “waiting for a crash,” you are effectively accepting a guaranteed negative real return to avoid a potential temporary loss.
5. The “Gap” Widens Fast The cost of waiting isn’t linear; it’s exponential. Consider two investors:
- Investor A starts at age 25, invests for 10 years, then stops.
- Investor B waits until age 35, then invests for 30 years.
Despite saving for three times as long, Investor B often ends up with less money. That first 10-year window of compounding is so powerful that it cannot be replicated by “catching up” later. Every year you “wait and see” in your 40s or 50s deletes the most potent years of growth from your portfolio.
6. The 2025/2026 Landscape We are entering a period of specific change:
- The LTA (Life Time Allowance) is gone, but a new £268k cap on tax-free cash has appeared.
- WEP has been repealed, changing the Social Security landscape for thousands of expats.
- New “Non-Dom” rules are resetting estate planning for US citizens in the UK.
These changes require action, not passivity. “Waiting to see how it plays out” could mean missing the window to file a WEP claim, missing the 2026 Class 2 NI deadline, or missing the “Super Catch-Up” window for 401(k)s.
The Bottom Line “Uncertainty” is the price of admission for long-term growth. There will never be a time when the news is quiet, the world is calm, and the path is perfectly clear.
If you are sitting on cash, waiting for the “right time,” consider this your signal. The right time was yesterday. The second best time is today.
Don’t let “Wait and See” become “Wait and Lose.”
Disclaimer: Some of the content of this communication was provided by third parties of Rosefinch. We have not verified the information contained herein, but we believe the content is reliable. None of this content should be construed as legal, accounting or tax advice. Many legal issues, accounting or tax regulations are complex and often have highly-individualized requirements, you should seek the advice of a competent professional if you have specific tax questions.
